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C00002 00002		It seems likely that the environmentalists will win their
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	It seems likely that the environmentalists will win their
campaign to pass Proosition 15 restricting nuclear energy.  If they
do, they will be very sorry.

	The immediate result will be a long confused legal situation.
It will be argued that the initiative is legally ineffective, because
the regulation of nuclear energy is pre-empted by the federal government
working through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.  Very likely this is
true, but it will take years to establish.  In the meantime, there will
be no new investment in nuclear energy in California.

	Perhaps you think the utilities can live with the provisions
of the Initiative.  The language of the Initiative represents a
compromise among the environmental groups that drew it up.  What it
means will have to be determined by lawsuits, because there is no
other way provided to do it.  This is in contrast to the sensible
way of regulating nuclear energy chosen by Congress.  Congress makes
laws from time to time, and these are administered by the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission.

	California is highly dependent on imported energy - oil
fro Texas, Alaska, and the Middle East.  The slogan "Let the bastards
freeze in the dark will be highly popular in the energy producing
parts of the United States and the rest of the
world when the next crisis comes.   Just a few weeks
ago the United States for the first time imported more oil than
it produced.

	A crisis can be much more prolonged and worse than the 1973
When we ru∨ short of natural gas, we simply won't be able to heat
all our houses, and people will have to move in with each other.
Whether the rationing is by price or by the bureaucracy of your
choice the result will be very unpleasant.  (Exercise for English
classes: compose a letter to the Energy Rationing Board explaining
why your mother should be allowed to keep her apartment and
not be required to move into your apartment or commune.  Come to
think of it, since Stanford will no doubt supply the rationing
bureaucrats, compose a letter denying the request.  Write another
letter explaining how you are better suited for the position of
administrative trainee than coal miner).

	The natural environmentalist answer is, "Why blame us?
If everyone would adopt the life-style we advocate, there would
be enough energy."  In the first place, the arithmetic of this
has not been worked out by them.  The latest Loma Prietan (a Sierra
Club publication) contains an article by Michael McCloskey, Executive
Director of the Sierra Club, blandly assuming that we can import
as much oil as we want.
There is much that can go wrong with this, besides the moral objection
that the energy shortage is world-wide and the U.S. is one of the
countries in the best position to be self-sufficient.

	However, the environmentalist idea that the energy shortage
can be used to force people to a more desirable lifestylis one
that is going to recoil on their heads with a vengeance.  People
will resent having been swindled and will resent being pushed around
and will express their resentment by breaking every environmentalist
idol in sight - like cutting the redwoods for firewood - or just
failing to enforce the laws against it.  If you want to change
people's life-styles, there is no shortcut to convincing them that


	In getting Proposition 15 on the ballot, the environmentalist
organizations and especially the Sierra Club, have over-reached
themselves.  If they are lucky, Proposition 15 will lose.  Otherwise,


	%2"Whom God would destroy He first sends mad%1."  If the
environmentalists achieve their goal of passing Proposition 15,
they will be very sorry.

the new life-style is more desirable.  Mr. Train, the Environmental
Protection Agency Administrator, will deeply regret saying,